Rippee Writes: what did we learn about the Rebels in Tuscaloosa
A taste of humble pie, a putrid offensive line performance and a look at where Ole Miss goes from here
Hope everyone had a good Monday. We have a new podcast out with former Ole Miss recruiting specialist Weldon Rotenberg recapping all angles of the Rebels’ brutal loss in Tuscaloosa. We talked defensive adjustments, the fourth down analytics book and how it is used, the offensive line play and much more. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We have a loaded newsletter today with a lot of football and golf.
Rebels manhandled up front in loss to Alabama
Boy, that was ugly. This wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Ole Miss was destroyed on both sides of the line of scrimmage in a game that served as evidence to support the notion that football is still played, and won, in the trenches. The way the end result was achieved isn’t overly complicated in my mind: Ole Miss couldn’t block Alabama up front. There’s no scheme to overcome that. When you cannot block, you cannot consistently move the football. That’s what happened to the Rebels offensively. The running game was nonexistent as a result and that thwarted Ole Miss’s ability to play with tempo. It also limited the Rebels in the passing game because so much of what Lane Kiffin and Jeff Lebby’s offense does is predicated on play action, run-pass option and run-action concepts. Alabama consistently stuck six in the box and dared Ole Miss to drop back and throw. It worked marvelously.
The same thing was true on the defensive side. Alabama reverted back to 2009-2014 Alabama in a sense. It pounded the Ole Miss defense via the running game between the tackles with great success. The three-down front provided little resistance as the Tide rode Brian Robinson to the tune of 36 carries for 171 yards and four scores. The success running the football opened up the passing game and the Rebels didn’t pressure Bryce Young consistently enough to coax him into mistakes.
Again, it was a simple as that when it comes to the result and how the game arrived there. But, of course, there were other subplots in this game that I’ll hit on below.
Running game sputters for first time in Kiffin era
Ole Miss averaged 2.29 yards per rush on 34 attempts on Saturday. That simply won’t hunt. This offense needs to run the football effectively to successfully enable them to do an array of other things that make this offense explosive, a few of which I referenced above. Saturday was the first time in the Kiffin era the Rebels ran for fewer than 100 yards as a team. These two stats below paint an even uglier picture.
I thought Matt Corral actually played pretty well. The constant pressure made it difficult to evaluate him. I changed my thoughts about some things after watching this game. Corral wasn’t one of those things.
Fourth down decision making
A lot was made of the decision-making process on fourth down this game and little nuance was involved, from the opinions I read. Pundits that clearly do not watch Ole Miss very often began suggesting Kiffin was playing hyper-aggressively due to his insatiable desire to beat Alabama. I find that to be silly. The evidence I would present to support that is every other game he’s coached over the last 18 months, as well as pretty much everything he has said since taking the job, including at his opening press conference, where he predicted the crappy opinions based on the result rather than the logic behind the choice. “Get ready to rip me,” Kiffin declared to a group of reporters at his introductory press conference when asked about how analytics affect his decision making in various in-game scenarios. The results sucked on Saturday. That makes people question both the decision and the process, which is fair to an extent. But acting like the decision making was drastically different from other games is silly.
I personally did not have much of a gripe with any of the decisions to go for it on fourth down throughout this game. Ole Miss was struggling defensively, and the idea that Kiffin would deviate from his usual approach to fourth-down decision making — to give the football back to an offense that was scoring every time it possessed the football against his defense — is silly to me.
But, with that said, if you disagreed with any or all of the fourth down choices, you aren’t an idiot, which leads me to my next point. Kiffin said after the game: “you live by the analytics and die by the analytics. We trust it and we trust our players.” Ok, that is fine. But does anyone else have a hard time believing that the analytics called for the Rebels to go for it every single time within a halfway reasonable yardage? I suppose the lone exception was the punt from inside their own 10 in the third quarter on 4th and inches. Ironically enough, that was the one decision I didn’t understand. The game is over if you punt or if you don’t convert, so why not try. Anyway, not the point. If the analytics say go for it every time, then what’s the point of even needing the book?
What book, you ask? I am glad you did. Ole Miss has a book on the sidelines for every game that is essentially a collection of various scenarios it might encounter within the game. This book was not created by Ole Miss, but rather a company that specializes in analytics and probability. Weldon expanded on this on the pod. Apparently Matt Lindsey has it in his possession during games and is tasked with proactively combing through potential scenarios that might arise, and the Rebels reference the book to make these decisions. Weldon said it himself that Kiffin doesn’t always go by the book. It’s more of a guide than a bible. So, I suppose I answered my own question from the previous paragraph, but I find his postgame quote contrasted with how the process plays out to be interesting. The last thing I will offer is this: you weren’t beating Alabama with punts and field goals. And if you didn’t like the aggressiveness, then learn to like it or palate it, because it isn’t going away.
The difference between hating the decision and hating the call/result
One other thing that was lost in this debate was the fact that most people were mad at the result and the play call more so than they were the decision to go for it, if they’re being honest. How many of you think we would be having this discussion had the Rebels gone a perfect 5-5 and hung around in the game? But again, hating either is fair, even if others disagree. Just be honest about what you really didn’t like.
Did I agree with using Ealy on the first one by the goal line instead of Snoop Conner? Not really. We have talked about Ealy’s struggles with contact and Conner’s incredible ability to stay on balance thru it. That was puzzling.
Did I agree with the little option play on (what I thought to be) the most consequential fourth down when the Rebels were down 14-0? No. But I also thought that was a clear sign that Ole Miss were scared to run the football at the Crimson Tide defensive line to gain three feet because of how badly the offensive line was getting beat.
Do I always agree with the team’s insistence on going up-tempo on fourth downs in an effort to catch teams off guard instead of firing your best bullet? Not really. That’s part of the reason Snoop wasn’t in the game. Ole Miss didn’t want to sub and give Alabama a chance to sub. I get that line of thinking sometimes, but at a certain point, isn’t better to be organized, unified and have a sound play call rather than rushing to catch the opponent off guard, particularly when they are killing you up front. Take the second fourth down attempt as an example. The one in which Ole Miss didn’t huddle up, scrambled around into a formation as the coaching staff furiously barked directions from the sideline seemed rushed and disjointed. The play ended up seeing Matt Corral scramble for his life to the short side of the field and heave on in the direction of Braylon Sanders, who was out of bounds. Kiffin and Lebby have forgotten more football than I will ever learn, and I feel silly questioning strategy, but wouldn’t the Rebels have been better off taking their time and getting a suitable call in and having everyone on the same page?
There’s a difference between agreeing with the process versus the way in which the result was achieved. I’d submit that when you cannot block nor stop the other team from running on you, the rest is moot anyway.
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The 3rd down issue is hidden by a perceived 4th down issue
Yes, Ole Miss stunk on fourth down in this game. Yes, it put them in a terrible spot. Rag on the defense all you want, but three of the four Alabama scoring drives in the first half started in plus territory due to the ineptitude on 4th down. That’s a ridiculous situation to put a good defense in. But what’s lost in all of this is that the best way not to struggle on fourth down is to convert on third down, and the Rebels entered the game ranked 72nd in the FBS in third down conversion percentage (right at 39 percent). That wasn’t talked about a lot, but it needs to improve. The 5-14 mark in this loss didn’t help either.
Ole Miss has to get better on third down going forward if it wants to have success offensively against good defenses. Too often it puts itself in high-leverage, high-risk scenarios on fourth down because of how bad the Rebels have been in converting third downs so far this year. That’s got to change, and keep in mind this percentage was 39 percent even when Ole Miss ran it well. I am not about to try to pretend to be smart enough to tell you how to be better, but I do know that number has to improve.
What to make about the defense and what can change?
I honestly don’t know what to make of this defense still. The group flunked its first real test against the run. It was perhaps the toughest test in the country, but the Rebels still failed mightily. I am not sure how this team will consistently stop good, between-the-tackles rushing attacks using this 3-2-6 look. I understand why D.J. Durkin and Chris Partridge elected to switch to it before the season. It suits the personnel better. But that is also precisely why it won’t work against good, downhill rushing attacks. The personnel simply doesn’t fit. More on that in a minute.
Please don’t confuse the following thoughts as a defense or being an apologist, but I also thought there was some good in the performance. I couldn’t figure out how to articulate my thoughts on how this unit played, but Weldon did it nicely on the pod: “Last year, Alabama moved through the defense like slicing through butter. This year, at least that offense had to earn its scores.” I understand that sounds like a defeated mentality for fans, but there is some merit to it. There were moments of resistance. Hell, three of the six touchdowns began with Alabama taking over on a short field. That’s a brutal test for a good defense. Ole Miss registered three sacks and pressured Young in spots, just not consistently enough for it to matter. I didn’t think it was the complete disaster it was made out to be in the moment. Hell, if I told you beforehand that Alabama was going to score 42 points in the game. Wouldn’t you have given Ole Miss a shot to win? From a big-picture standpoint, Ole Miss has to get more athletic and more talented up front on defense. This much is obvious, but I don’t think this defense will rank 129th (nor close to it) in the FBS in total defense like it did last year. In fact, I still think it could be top-80 at the end of the year if the Rebels remain healthy. Fans shouldn’t be satisfied with that, but it is progress, if nothing else.
With that said, what can be done? There was much talk about the 3-2-6 and it being insufficient against the run. I think I agree, but how differently can Ole Miss play? Who are you rolling out there as fourth and fifth linemen without completely deteriorating the barely-existent depth on the defensive line. Did you hear Isaiah Iton or Jamond Gordon’s name called much yesterday? I didn’t either. That’s not great. They didn’t recruit two junior college guys to be non-factors. Who else are you trusting beyond Quinten Bivens, Sam Williams, Cedric Johnson and K.D. Hill? A healthy Tavius Robinson is the only name I can even think of after the two aforementioned junior college products. So, realistically, how much differently can they play? Sure, they can put an extra linebacker, or two, on the field. They actually tried that. Austin Keys started the game (presumably in place of A.J. Finley who was not out there for the opening drive). Clearly, that did not make much of a difference on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t in the future.
Saturday showed how far Ole Miss still has to go on the defensive side of the ball to contend against Alabama. The rest of the season will show how close the Rebels defense is to competing with everyone else without being a complete liability.
Get your popcorn:
A lot was made of Kiffin’s pregame interview, in which his famous last words were “get your popcorn,” before flipping off the headset and exiting the stage. Of course, when you do that and proceed to lose in non-competitive fashion, it’s going to be thrown back in your face, and rightfully so. I would venture to say that Saturday had to be humbling for Kiffin. It’s the first time in his Ole Miss tenure he’s been run off the field, and it came against the opponent and the coach that he wants to beat more than anyone else. And it’s not close. I think that’s what the popcorn comment and the headset flip were rooted in. You don’t see that sort of emotion and boisterous personality from him publicly during LSU or Auburn week. It’s clear this one meant a hell of a lot more to him. I have no idea whether or not he thought he had the horses to actually pull off slaying the giant. He received a harsh dose of reality if he did.
This coming weekend will be one hell of a test in terms of how Kiffin and the Rebels respond. They’re going to get the exact same medicine on both sides of the ball, though it may not be as potent. This week of preparation for Arkansas and how this game turns out will tell us a lot more about Ole Miss, Kiffin and where this program is among the landscape of the SEC than simply not having the talent to take down the number one team in the country on the road.
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Around the SEC
Alabama - You saw the seeds of a potentially elite defense being planted on Saturday. The Tide lost running back Jase McClellan and aren’t quite as good on the offensive line as they were in 2020, but this team is one of two certainties (Georgia) when it comes to who will receive a bid to the college football playoff.
Auburn - Credit to Bo Nix. He responded to being benched against Georgia State by putting together the best performance of his career in a 24-19 win in Baton Rouge. If Nix continues to play like that and the Tigers utilize what he does well versus trying to make him into something they thought he might could be two years ago, Auburn is going to be a tough win for Ole Miss on Halloween weekend.
Arkansas - The Razorbacks were predictably pummeled by the best defense in college football. We knew they were limited offensively and never really stood a chance to score on Georgia. I just didn’t think they literally would not score. The Razorbacks are good defensively and on both lines of scrimmage. They’re limited at quarterback and that didn’t bode well for them on Saturday.
Florida - Florida out-gained Kentucky 382-220. Kentucky completed 7 of 17 pass attempts. The turnover battle was even. Dan Mullen got outcoached and might finish third in the SEC East because of it. Woof. I wonder if he begins to subtly lobby for the USC gig. Just a guess. I know nothing about the fit or interest. Insert any job currently open in place of USC and the point still stands. Things feel a bit rocky for Mullen in Gainesville right now.
Georgia - The Bulldogs are elite on defense and getting healthier on offense, even with J.T. Daniels missing this game due to injury. Georgia is the best team in college football right now.
Kentucky - What a win for Mark Stoops. Even with pedestrian quarterback play, the Wildcats took down Florida. They don’t have the firepower on offense to beat Georgia, but Kentucky finishing second in the SEC East is another rung up the ladder for what has become a consistent and legitimate SEC football program.
LSU - The Tigers cannot run the ball and do not even really try. That has to change, though I am not sure it matters. The forces were already in motion for Ed Orgeron to be ousted. It will be expedited with each loss. Look down the Tigers’ schedule. Where do you find a win in the next month? This could spiral quickly.
Missouri - Two weeks ago, I wrote last week that Missouri’s offense is competent and the defense is bad. Last week, I felt the exact same way. I was wrong. The offense is average but defense is terrible. This team allowed 62 points to Tennessee at home. The Tigers stink.
Mississippi State - Credit to Mississippi State. It went on the road in a tough environment and did enough to beat a ranked team. The air raid looked much better. Will Rogers was really good. The Bulldogs are not as bad as they looked for the the season’s first four weeks. I don’t know if they are good or even decent. But that is sort of the interesting part. How high is their ceiling running this type of offense week in and week out in the SEC and can they continue to recruit well enough on the defensive side to not have a drop off once all of the Joe Moorhead and Bob Shoop talent departs that side of the ball.
Ole Miss - see all the words above. We will learn a lot about this program this week.
South Carolina - It wasn’t pretty, but the Gamecocks held off Troy at home. Nothing has looked pretty for Shane Beamer’s team but they play hard. That matters when you’re trying to build a program. South Carolina should savor every good moment in what will be a tough fall.
Tennessee - So maybe Josh Heupel knew what he was doing when he benched Joe Milton for Hendon Hooker. The Volunteers offense showed flashes of what they hope to be on a consistent bases once they get better talent into the program. They had a hell of a performance on Saturday
Texas A&M - Zach Calzada is not accurate and I am not totally convinced this offense would look leaps and bounds better with a healthy Haynes King. Jimbo Fisher isn’t doing him any favors with an outdated scheme. He’s paid way too much money for that to be true. The Aggies are a 7-8 win team at best.
Vanderbilt - The Dores beat UConn. I could be an ass and make jokes about what might be the worst FBS game this year and how it doesn’t matter, but I won’t. Every win matters when you’re building a culture. Clark Lea is trying to do just that in an impossible situation. Good for him and his team.
On the horizon
- Tons of content in the newsletter in preparation for a fascinating match up with Arkansas
- I held my Sanderson recap until tomorrow because this newsletter went long
- Opponent preview pod, followed by a Friday picks podcast.
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by smashing the subscribe button below. It is free. Back with more tomorrow.