Rippee Writes: Corral shines, Rebels survive, can the 3-2-6 work?
Ole Miss survived a wild one with Arkansas and a look around the SEC
Hope everyone is having a good Monday. We have a new podcast out with Weldon Rotenberg in his usual Sunday slot as we try to make sense of a wild 52-51 for Ole Miss over Arkansas. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We have a ton of football to dive into today.
Decisions, decisions
I guess there’s no better place to start analyzing this saga than the play that decided the end result more so than any other. While I still can’t quite comprehend how Arkansas was able to move the football 75 yards the field in 67 seconds, once the Razorbacks did score, I pretty much immediately assumed that Sam Pittman would elect to end the game right then and there. Credit to Pittman, too. The result wasn’t favorable, and I was a little mystified by the play call, but the sheer clarity and confidence in himself and his team was impressive to me. This is a guy who is less than two years removed from being considered one of the more puzzling and irrelevant hires in recent memory. An offensive line coach with no coordinator experience thought to be undeserving of the position given to him. Sound familiar? Anyway, It takes some balls to be that confident and decisive in a game that had enormous implications. I was impressed by it. In fact, had he called timeout, elected to kick and Arkansas ended up winning in overtime, I am not even sure I would be as impressed, if that makes any sense at all.
As far as the decision itself goes, I get both sides. I didn’t really think there was a wrong choice either way. I said on the Rebel Grove postgame show on Saturday that I would’ve probably played for overtime. Here’s why: the way Arkansas was methodically moving the football down the field on Ole Miss, to me, seemed more conducive to winning the game in overtime. K.J. Jefferson and Trelon Smith were getting essentially whatever they wanted in the running game and an Ole Miss defense with little depth was getting worn down to the point of offering no resistance.
I’ll leave it to any of you reading out there that are Ole Miss fans: did you want that thing continuing into overtime? Conversely, I would submit that the way Ole Miss was moving the ball as evidence to support this as well. While the Rebels had great success running the football on the edge against Arkansas, they struggled running on the interior, and in the second half the offense really survived on tempo, Arkansas fatigue, busted coverages and Matt Corral’s ridiculous arm strength and talent. Well, in college overtime, it’s hard to get beat deep with just 25 yards (plus 10 end zone yards to cover) and tempo isn’t really much of an advantage. I would’ve placed more faith in Arkansas getting a stop before Ole Miss in overtime.
After I made this case, Neal McCready said that he thought it was the right decision and made a terrific point as to why: Arkansas, in that moment, had one chance to end the game with the best player on the field (Corral) completely powerless, a spectator with no more control of the outcome than the people in the stands. There’s no guarantee the Razorbacks would’ve gotten that opportunity again. I mean, hell, the game was 52-51 with over 1300 yards of combined offense. I cannot disagree with that at all, which leads me to my previous statement about agreeing with either side. It’s why Pittman is paid $5 million — to make tough decisions and live with the consequences. The result doesn’t always dictate the quality of the choice. I didn’t mind it.
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About that play call
Understanding or agreeing with the decision is not the same as liking how Arkansas went about it. I futilely tried to express this to some Ole Miss folks online two weeks ago regarding fourth down decision making versus fourth down play calling. I was pretty shocked that Arkansas didn’t run the football with the 6-foot-5, 250 lb. quarterback who was pummeling the Ole Miss defense in what was truly a terrific performance from Jefferson. I hadn’t gotten to see a ton of him up until this game and left pretty impressed — inaccuracy and vision limitations in the passing game aside.
It looked like Arkansas ran a similar (potentially the exact same) concept that it ran on Jefferson’s three-yard touchdown pass to Trey Knox in the third quarter to pull within three at 24-21 — a rollout to the right, Knox (or another receiver) finds an opening and Jefferson makes a short throw with a defense in distress, protecting against the possibility of Jefferson keeping it himself or throwing it. Kiffin actually got asked about what he would’ve done in that situation (shoutout to Nick Suss for a great question). Kiffin said he actually thought about that as the game went down to the wire would have probably kicked. Don’t confuse that for Kiffin saying he would’ve kicked had he been wearing a red shirt with a pig on it in that moment. He simply stated that he would’ve played for overtime as a home favorite, among other factors. One of those factors was interesting to me. Kiffin mentioned that Ole Miss had already used its two-point play call after having to compensate for a missed PAT on its first touchdown. Of course teams have more than one two-point call. But there are likely only so many plays for that specific situation that the team feels supremely confident in. I am not sure if that was the exact same play for Arkansas, but I did find it interesting that Kendall Briles went back to the well for the same play he used in a similar spot, if that makes sense. I would’ve run it and dared Ole Miss to stop Jefferson from gaining nine feet with a running start. I wouldn’t have liked the Rebels’ odds.
Anyway, I think we covered all angles of that. Credit to the Ole Miss defense. For all of its flaws and mistakes, the Rebels were ready for that play and defended it well. The result was a massive win for this program.
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Corral put the team on his back
This is a terrible headline for a tired point, but maybe that is kind of the point. It’s the same story in a different week. Matt Corral was absolutely terrific in this game and Ole Miss needed every bit of it to win this football game. The Rebels made a concerted effort to run the football at Arkansas and wear down a talented defensive front. Part of the reason for that was the way Barry Odom and this Razorback defense played Ole Miss. They basically dared Corral, Kiffin and Lebby to take the proverbial bait by getting impatient and forcing the issue with the hopes of stopping themselves or turning the football over. None of them bit, which makes the last two touchdowns (basically) coming on explosive plays of 35+ yards sort of ironic, but the point is that Lebby and Corral were perfectly fine being patient.
Corral ran it 14 times for 94 yards and two scores, and when he did need to make a big throw, he did it every single time. That’s one way to view this game. There were a handful of crucial throws that decided this. Ole Miss had a guy that was flawless and Arkansas did not.
Pick your favorite: the 67-yard (from here he stood) bomb to Sanders was mesmerizing to watch.
The fourth down throw to Drummond over the middle with the game tied at 31 was perhaps even more impressive. There aren’t a lot of guys in this sport that can make throws like that. Hell, you can argue there isn’t another player that does it with the consistency Corral does. He extended plays and drives with his feet in the second half at times in which the offense was otherwise sputtering. Oh, and lastly, he made good decisions. For as many meaningless stats that are shown throughout a TV broadcast, ESPN had a great one on Saturday regarding Corral. He’s the only player in college football to average at least 9.5 yards per attempt without an interception. That, to me, is telling of how much he’s matured and improved from a decision making standpoint.
He did everything asked of him and Ole Miss needed every bit of it. What a performance.
What did we learn about the running backs
Ole Miss was down a starting guard and its top running back, yet proceeded to rush the football for 324 yards. How’d the Rebels do it? I thought they were a lot more creative with how they ran the ball, whether it was with Corral or how they got Henry Parrish into space. The way that kid cuts once and is off to the races is tough to defend. Then there’s Snoop Conner, who will presumably get the ball more going forward after scoring three 12 carries and totaling 110 yards. Conner waited patiently for his role to increase in a crowded running back room and was more than ready to answer the call when his time came. Why he wasn’t used more prior to this can be debated but I’d contend that him continuing to see more touches going forward is more consequential for the Rebels.
Ole Miss struggled at times running squarely on the interior — off the center and two guards. It showed up in short yardage situations. Kiffin even mentioned it in his postgame press conference, saying something to the effect of “have you seen us in short yardage situations when we cannot go tempo?”. Ole Miss will have to get better in this regard, though, at some point, it might just be something this team can’t do well. But the Rebels were able to run the ball with great success despite it and were not deterred by a few negative or neutral plays in the running game. That’s a credit to Lebby and Kiffin for staying committed to it and I thought Saturday certainly flashed some of their schematic brilliance with how they ran the ball.
I don’t believe Ole Miss is better without Jerrion Ealy. That is silly. I just think all voids aren’t created equal, and that this team was better suited to survive being down a starting running back than, say, a receiver or two.
So about that 3-2-6
This was a lengthy portion of our defensive discussion on Sunday night’s podcast. Can the 3-2-6 work and what is the actual issue with it?
There are many ways to look at it, but I’ll start with a general thought: no, the Ole Miss defense was not good on Saturday. Yes, giving up 51 points and 676 yards of offense is bad. But this was also sort of a weird game that I think underscored a lack of depth more than it did a schematic failure.
Arkansas had 14 points with 7:29 left to go in the third quarter. I realize football is a four quarter game and that giving up 37 points over the final 22 minutes is very bad. But this defense got a stop and a turnover in the first half. The offense failed to score in response on both occasions. The idea seemed to be that D.J. Durkin was fine with giving medium-sized gains, particularly between the 20s and banked on being good in the red zone. It sort of worked in spurts. Again, Arkansas had 14 points in the game’s first 38 minutes. But then the Rebels wore down. Ole Miss looked exhausted in the fourth quarter. To me, that’s a product of a lack of depth, and to some degree, the offense scoring fast in response. No one is going to call for the offense go slower. That’s silly. It’s just something to factor in when evaluating this defense. We all knew this group had depth issues and part of the move to the 3-2-6 was to try to mask it a bit, but there’s only so much that can be done.
Now, with that said, there are some pretty glaring schematic issues with this defense. This is the part where I qualify all of this by saying I am not a schematic savant and don’t pretend to be an all-knowing analyst of the inner workings of college defenses. But there seems to be a glaring lack of diversity and creativity with regard to this scheme. What’re the wrinkles? Aside from occasionally using Austin Keys as an extra linebacker, there doesn’t seem to be any obvious mixing of looks. If Ole Miss blitzed frequently, I sure didn’t see it. That is particularly puzzling to me considering the fact that this defense has struggled to get a consistent pass rush by rushing three. The defensive line can’t beat double teams, and on top of that, they are getting doubled on every play due to five offensive linemen only needing to block three in passing situations. Ole Miss needs guys like Sam Williams (particularly Williams) and Cedric Johnson to be more consistent. But when they aren’t why not be a little more aggressive? Hell, the one time they had Chance Campbell on that little delayed, QB spy blitz thing, he sacked Jefferson. All of them have forgotten more football than I will ever know, but I’d just figure at some point, if you’re not going to be good, why not be a little reckless? There are six defensive backs on the field. What’re you scared of 45 yards down the field that isn’t being achieved in three 15-yard gains? It’s puzzling.
Ole Miss is what it is from a talent and depth standpoint on defense. That’ll be solved through recruiting and the next two classes will tell the tale on how that goes, but I do think there is room to be a little more inventive in an effort to make amends for the defense’s weaknesses. I can promise you they aren’t ditching this 3-2-6 with a trip to Knoxville next week, but that doesn’t mean it can’t look a little more exciting.
Final thought
This was a huge win for Ole Miss. I am stating the obvious, but it’s worth saying out loud. That game had potential New Year’s six implications, particularly with the SEC West looking as unpredictable as ever. The Rebels have come out on the wrong side of their fair share of these over the years, sometimes in this series alone. Perhaps they were due to be on the right side of one, if you believe in that sort of thing. But nevertheless, they survived and have a chance to improve their deficiencies, which is easier to do after a win than a loss.
Around the SEC
Sort of piggybacking off of what I said above, this is a strange SEC. Georgia is clearly better than everyone in the East. We think(?) Kentucky is now the second best team in that division behind them, with Florida being the other candidate, and then a bunch of mediocrity behind that? Or is it one great team (UGA), three good(ish) teams (UK, UF, UT) and three terrible teams (USC, VU, MU)? I have no idea.
And then there is the West, which I assumed was a foregone conclusion after the Rebels lost in Tuscaloosa, with three teams having a legitimate shot at finishing second. But is it now one really good team in Alabama and a bunch of varying degrees of competent? Who sucks? Maybe LSU? Probably LSU. The wheels seem to be falling off that thing. Arkansas doesn’t stink. I am not sure how you can say Mississippi State does after a win in College Station and then Texas A&M beat Alabama? Auburn isn’t good but I wouldn’t say the Tigers are bad either.
The point is that things seems as wide open as ever, even if the two teams we think will meet in Atlanta end up doing so. I think that means Ole Miss will play a lot of games like it did on Saturday. I hope for the sake of all your liquor cabinets that they aren’t all that dramatic, but you get my point. The Rebels are going to have a bunch of coin flip games adown the stretch, which will make for an entertaining, potentially enthralling, or frustrating, two months. Count me in as being excited to watch either way.
Alabama - Looked incredibly human against a defense talented enough to stop its rushing attack. Ole Miss wasn’t talented enough to do it. Texas A&M was. It’s the only reason the Aggies were ranked so highly. Credit to them for playing a fantastic game, but I am not sure how much this will mean in the long run. Alabama plays at Mississippi State, before four straight home games against Tennessee, LSU, FCS Tech and Arkansas before a road trip to Auburn. I don’t see them losing again, but I suppose the possibility of it makes their loss consequential.
Arkansas - I left more impressed with this team than I was before the game. The Razorbacks are good. I don’t know what Jefferson’s ceiling is, but they’re going to be a tough win for everyone they play.
Auburn - Bo Nix came back down to earth. Georgia is really, really good.
Florida - The Gators took care of business against a terrible team. Good for them.
Georgia - The Bulldogs are elite on defense and getting healthier on offense. Georgia is the best team in college football right now, and I am not sure it is close.
Kentucky - The Wildcats pummeled LSU up-and-down the field for three hours on Saturday night. It wasn’t as close as the final score. They made LSU look soft. Mark Stoops team doesn’t win pretty, but this roster is good enough to beat everyone left on its schedule outside of Georgia, which would make for the greatest season in program history.
LSU - What a bad look for the Tigers. The strangest part about it is that wasn’t surprising. We all knew it was over for Ed Orgeron, but my friend Brody Miller wrote a great story encapsulating why this one will be viewed as the official beginning of the end. You can read it here.
Missouri - I literally have zero thoughts about this team. Congrats on beating North Texas? Allowing 35 points seems suboptimal.
Mississippi State - Thoughts and prayers to the Bulldogs playing Alabama after a loss. I think this team is getting better, though, and a bye week likely helped out too.
Ole Miss - see all the words above.
South Carolina - The Gamecocks need better players and a lot of them.
Tennessee - Don’t look now, but this offense is lighting up bad defenses and playing at an even faster pace than Ole Miss. The Rebels aren’t a bad team but are a bad defense. This will be a fascinating game in Knoxville.
Texas A&M - Credit to Jimbo Fisher for a hell of a game plan and to Zach Calzada for having the game of his life. That’s what some thought this team could be with competent quarterback play. It won’t matter much, but that’s a hell of an effort coming off a terrible loss the week before.
Vanderbilt - It’s going to be a long fall season.
On the horizon
Tennessee preview pod with Charlie Burris of AtoZ Sports
Football newsletters with some golf mixed in tomorrow and Wednesday
Friday picks show
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun. It is free.