Rippee Writes: an Ole Miss game of consequence is upon us again
Some final Alabama thoughts, a Sanderson Farms Championship update and some games of interest
A good Friday morning to you all. We’ve got a new podcast out with former Ole Miss offensive lineman Sean Rawlings. If you’ll remember, Rawlings was called into action as an under-sized redshirt freshman after Laremy Tunsil was suspended due to the loaner car debacle that I am sure none of you want to rehash. His first career SEC start came in Bryant-Denny Stadium in 2015. He knows a thing or two about winning in that building and we talked about the belief it takes to not be shrunken by the moment, the difficulties of playing before you’re ready in the Southeastern Conference and more. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts.
I’ve got some final football thoughts and then a Sanderson Farms Championship update today. Let’s have a Friday.
The most anticipated Ole Miss game in half a decade is upon us
If you are an Ole Miss fan, I hope you woke up with a gripping blend of anxiousness, impatience and excitement. You may have forgotten what that feels like. It’s been a minute since the Rebels were relevant and playing in a game that’ll shape the trajectory of the college football season. Enjoy it. This is supposed to be fun, after all. I am not one that gets caught up in the emotion of this stuff. That fades with the job. I don’t believe you can accurately analyze and cover something you have an emotional investment in. But with that said, I don’t want to sound like some overzealous Big J journalist. I am just a grease salesman with a newsletter. I can appreciate the passion, loyalty and emotional investment into something you cannot control. It’s healthy, for the most part, and if you and thousands of others like you didn’t have it, none of us in the content-producing business would have jobs. So, enjoy the build-up. Every program in America pours millions of dollars into the pursuit of exactly where Ole Miss sits right now — relevancy. Rational hope to reach the pinnacle of the sport. Every school’s mindset is that they should be there permanently, but the reality is, only a handful sit where Ole Miss currently sits. Savor it.
Anyways, rant over. I really don’t know what else to say about this game that hasn’t already been said. Ole Miss isn’t as talented Alabama. But it just might have a better offense. It will almost certainly have a better scheme and maybe the Rebels have closed the talent gap enough defensively to pick off a Crimson Tide team that is a bit inexperienced that the last couple iterations that steamrolled through the SEC. I’ll list three reasons why I think Ole Miss will win this game and a three why it won’t. Original content idea, I know.
WHY OLE MISS WILL WIN ON SATURDAY:
Ole Miss rushes for close to 200 yards. This is how Florida clawed back into the football game two weeks ago after it fell behind 21-3. If the Rebels are getting what they want on the ground atfour or five yards a pop, I am not entirely sure what Alabama can do to slow down this offense, barring a barrage of turnovers. The running game is crucial to the tempo the Rebels utilize to wear down opponents and is really the gas that fuels this car Lebby and Kiffin constructed. I don’t think Ole Miss is good enough to win being one-dimensional, but I think it is absolutely good enough to win if it is successful in establishing the run.
Cedric Johnson and Sam Williams play the best games of their career on the edge. The most vulnerable piece of this Alabama offense is the offensive line. Part of the reason Bryce Young hasn’t pushed the football down the field as frequently as you’re accustomed to seeing Alabama offenses do of late is shaky protection. The biggest question mark surrounding this defense heading into the season was the defensive line, which included its ability to generate a consistent pass rush. If Williams and Johnson can be disruptors off the edge, the Rebels have a shot.
Matt Corral has his Heisman moment. Excuse that last sentence that sounds like a clickbait headline from an aggregation blog. What I am trying to convey is that there are times in which a quarterback reaches a level of locked in that defenses can do little with it. Corral has yet to do that against a quality opponent in his career. Don’t mistake that for sounding like doubt, it’s more of a lack of opportunity and experience. Neither of those are applicable regarding this game. If he is going to put a stamp on this college football season and become a national storyline bound for the Heisman trophy ceremony in New York in December, there’s no better moment to seize than now. If he’s the storyline people are talking about when this game ends, the Rebels likely won it on the back of the man that’s both stabilized this program and fueled its rise.
WHY OLE MISS WON’T WIN:
The perceived defensive improvement wasn’t legitimate. Alabama runs the football at will between the tackles and the Rebels simply can’t stop this offense. I like the Rebels chances in a shootout to an extent, but if the defense can’t force a couple of punts, it is asking the offense to be perfect. The margin for error in this scenario is pretty slim.
Ole Miss falls behind early, perhaps with a turnover or two. If I am wrong, it wouldn’t be the first or the last time, but I think that if the Rebels fall in an early 10-0 hole, the defense is too unproven to feel good about their chances chasing the game. Dynamite football analysis here: a fast start is paramount for the Rebels. If Alabama scores first, an answer is of vital importance. Ole Miss, of course, taking an early lead, and giving the defense a chance to get a stop to create separation, would be ideal. None of this is breaking news or things you don’t already know, I am just listing scenarios no matter how obvious.
Ole Miss offense gets tripped up by some sort of schematic wrinkle. Think of the drop-eight situation in Fayetteville last year. Although, I am not sure how likely this one is. Alabama defensive coordinator Pete Golding isn’t the most popular guy in Tuscaloosa right now. What was thought to be potentially one of the better defenses of the Saban era has looked a bit flimsy at times through four games. Is that early season kinks getting worked out or the sign of something more concerning? I suppose we will learn that tomorrow. But there is still the possibility that Alabama shows a look (or looks) that puzzles this offense. I am not smart enough to know what that might be.
That wasn’t the greatest analysis in the world, but again, what else is there to be said at this point? Don’t look at these as takes or concrete statements but rather symptoms of what a win or a loss might look like.
I think the most important intangible heading into this is that the team feels that if they play well, they will win the game. It’s real too. That matters. Whether the Rebels win or lose, they won’t be shrunken by the moment. I’m looking forward to what is sure to be an entertaining game.
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Mississippians go low at Sanderson
All five Mississippians in the field at the Sanderson Farms Championship fired an opening-round in red figures. As of this writing, Hayden Buckley shot 7-under 65 in round two and is one off the lead. Andy Ogletree birdied his third hole of the day after an opening-round 5-under 67 and looks poised to see the weekend. Chad Ramey, Davis Riley and Cohen Trolio are all 1-under and just beginning their second rounds. The cut line looks to be settling on 4-under, so they have some work to do, but there is a chance all five make the cut.
For Buckley, he’ll be in contention to win this thing heading into the weekend, which is a pretty awesome storyline brewing. I’ll have more as the weekend progresses.
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Games I am interested in this weekend:
We’ve officially reached the heart of college football season as there are great games littered throughout the day on Saturday. Here are few of interest to me:
Arkansas at Georgia - Can the Razorbacks slay what many think is the best team in college football? Is Georgia’s offense better than it showed through two games as it gets healthier on that side of the ball? If the Bulldogs sputter on offense, Arkansas can absolutely win this game. But Georgia puts up 24 points or so, I have no idea how Arkansas gets to 20 on that defense.
Auburn at LSU - Will Auburn be a better version of itself with T.J. Finley at quarterback? Surely Bryan Harsin won’t roll Bo Nix back out there. Finley led the only offensive touchdown drive of the game last week, a 98-yard drive to save the Tigers (with the help of terrible officiating) against Georgia State. If LSU loses this, it could be the beginning of the end for Ed Orgeron. Some would argue that has already begun. I won’t argue it, I’ll just say a loss will expedite the process
Mississippi State-Texas A&M - This game feels like one in which we will find out just how bad the losing team is and find reason for optimism for the winning team, if that makes any sense at all.
Florida at Kentucky - Dan Mullen has had trouble in Lexington and the talent gap between these two rosters is as narrow as its been in some time, with maybe one other exception within the last half decade. This feels like a gigantic opportunity for Mark Stoops and this Kentucky program to climb another rung on the latter and finish second in the SEC East behind Georgia. For Florida, it’s just about surviving until the Cocktail Party.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame - If there was ever a year in which a non-Power Five opponent is going to make this current version of the College Football Playoff, it’s this year and it’s this Bearcats team. This is the second of two chances on their schedule to notch a quality win over a Power Five school and I tend to think they’ll go for style points against a vulnerable Notre Dame team with average quarterback play and shoddy run defense.
Baylor at Oklahoma State - Are we positive these aren’t the two best teams in the Big 12?
Boston College at Clemson - Boston College is a stealth contender to win the ACC and I would feel less ridiculous saying that had their starting quarterback not been hurt. I think (too lazy to look up) they’re in Clemson’s division, but is there a chance the Tigers are just bad? The offense certainly is.
Michigan at Wisconsin - If Harbaugh loses this, I will have a hard time taking Michigan any more seriously than I do a program, like say, Wisconsin?
Enjoy an awesome slate of games.
On the horizon:
- I’ll be on the Hand Raise Guys postgame show with Chase and Neal for a brief few minutes, per usual
- Weldon and I will have our usual reaction podcast on Sunday.
That’s all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun. It’s free. Have a wonderful weekend and enjoy the games.